特朗普争议可能左右日本国会众议院选举?

编辑:给力英语新闻 更新:2017年10月12日 作者:美国之音帕登(Brian Padden)

日本自民党党魁和首相安倍晋三(左) 10月8日在政党领袖辩论会中发表讲话。希望之党的领袖小池百合子在一旁聆听。
日本自民党党魁和首相安倍晋三(左) 10月8日在政党领袖辩论会中发表讲话。希望之党的领袖小池百合子在一旁聆听。

属于立场保守的自民党的日本首相安倍晋三针对朝鲜核危机以及导弹试射威胁采取强硬回应,获得日本民众的支持。安倍晋三于希望利用这波优势,于是在9月28日解散了日本国会众议院,要求提前举行国会选举,试图藉此把他的首相任期延续到2020年。

坚定不移的支持

在竞选传单中,安倍晋三所属的自民党主打安倍和美国总统特朗普的私人交情,主张这会 “强化美日联盟”,面对朝鲜威胁保护日本。

美国哥伦比亚大学研究日本政治的彦谷贵子(Takako Hikotani)教授上星期在外交关系协会在纽约举办的活动上说: “我认为现在的重点应该是试图确保美国的吓阻作用让日本可以觉得安心,并确保美国和日本同舟共济,说到做到。”

安倍坚定不移地支持特朗普政府对朝鲜金正恩政府施压的立场,强调通过严厉的经济制裁以及可能使用军事力量的威胁来迫使朝鲜放弃核项目。安倍和特朗普一样,也不相信能够通过谈判而与平壤达成可验证的结果,除非而且是直到平壤领导人被迫在生存和去核化之间做出抉择。

安倍9月份在联合国发表讲话时说: “需要的不是对话,而是压力。”

日本军方星期三的时候表示,美国海军“罗纳德·里根号”航空母舰与日本军舰在朝鲜半岛西南方向冲绳附近一同进行演习,联合展现军事实力。

对稳定性的担心

安倍有可能预期,面临对手日本民主党,他很容易就能胜选。安倍政府要修改日本和平宪法,结束对日本武装力量的限制,以强化日本自卫队,民主党是反对修宪的主要自由派势力。

但是广受欢迎的东京都知事小池百合子领导的新的保守党派希望之党主张日本的国防安全可以另辟蹊径。小池百合子曾经担任日本防卫相。

小池承诺强力支持美日联盟,但是,她周一的时候针对盲目地跟随特朗普的作法表示持保留态度。她批评过特朗普对抗性的言论,包括威胁说如果受到挑衅,美国要 “彻底摧毁朝鲜”。特朗普还嘲讽金正恩为 “小火箭男”,并且声称国务卿蒂勒森想要与朝鲜进行对话的努力是在“浪费时间”。

小池说她“还不确定特朗普政府是否稳定”,鉴于白宫内部“极为戏剧化的人事变动”,她想要“看清楚这会是个怎么样的政府”。

小池也担心把自己视为交易促成者的特朗普未来有可能会同意减少美国对日本的支持,以此来换取北京在朝鲜议题、贸易和其他美国重大国家安全问题的合作。

虽然日本民众对于美日联盟的支持可能因为面临朝鲜威胁而提升,对于许多日本人来说,特朗普仍然是一位引起两极化的人物。

位于日本东京的上智大学政治学教授中野晃一(Koichi Nakano)说:“与美国坚实的联盟很明显对一些人来说起到了安心的作用,但是另一方面,这并不是一位寻常的美国总统。”

目前还不清楚小池试图把自己和安倍在国防安全议题上做区隔是否会让选民产生共鸣。

小池和安倍两人都支持修改日本和平宪法第九条。该规定禁止日本通过战争来解决国际争端。他们也都主张日本自卫队需要更多空间来对抗来自朝鲜和中国日益增加的威胁。反对修宪的人士则认为这可能会让日本卷入国际冲突,最可能是为了支持日本的军事盟友美国而陷入战争。

日本读卖新闻新的民调显示32%的选民支持安倍的自民党,只有13%支持小池的希望之党,从9月份以来少了六个百分点。

立场偏左的新政党日本立宪民主党的成立也有可能会分走小池希望之党的选票。

Trump Casts Shadow on Japan Election

The leader of Japan’s new conservative opposition party this week questioned the stability of U.S. President Donald Trump, which could make the often polarizing American president a divisive issue in the snap parliamentary election to be held on October 22.

Seeking to take advantage of rising public support for his hardline response to continued North Korean nuclear and missile tests, conservative Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe recently dissolved parliament and called for an early election in an attempt to extend his hold on power to 2020.

Unwavering support

In campaign pamphlets, his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) prominently highlights Abe’s personal friendship with Trump as a political asset that will “strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance” to protect the country against the North Korean threat.

“I think the emphasis now is [to] try to make sure that the U.S. deterrence is more something that Japan could feel assured about, and to make sure that the U.S. is onboard to make that happen,” said Takako Hikotani, a professor of Japanese politics at Columbia University, during a recent Council On Foreign Relations event in New York.

Abe has shown unwavering support for the Trump administration’s emphasis on pressuring the Kim Jong Un government to halt its nuclear program through increasingly crippling economic sanctions and the possible use of military force. And like Trump, the Japanese leader is doubtful that a verifiable negotiated settlement with Pyongyang can be reached, until and unless the leadership in Pyongyang faces an existential choice between survival and denuclearization.

“What is needed is not dialogue, but pressure,” Abe said during his address to the United Nations in September.

In a joint show of force, the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier, the Ronald Reagan, is conducting drills with a Japanese warship in waters around Okinawa southwest of the Korean peninsula, Japan's military said on Wednesday.

Stability concerns

Abe may have anticipated an easy election contest against the Democratic Party, the main liberal opposition that has opposed his government’s efforts to strengthen the Japanese military by altering the country’s pacifist constitution.

But the emergence of a new conservative party, called Kibo no To (Party of Hope) led by popular Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, a former Minster of Defense, is offering a strong national security alternative.

While promising strong support for the U.S.-Japan alliance, Koike on Monday voiced reservations about blindly following Trump, who has been criticized for his confrontational rhetoric in threatening to “totally destroy North Korea” if provoked, disparaging Kim Jong Un as “little rocket man,” and calling his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s efforts to engage North Korea in dialogue a “waste of time.”

Koike said she is “not yet sure whether the Trump administration is stable,” and given the “extremely dynamic personnel changes” that have occurred within the White House she wants to “look carefully to see what kind of administration this will be."

Koike is also concerned that Trump, who sees himself as a deal maker, might agree to reduce U.S. support for Japan in the future, to get Beijing’s cooperation on North Korea, trade and other U.S. national security priorities.

Even though public support for the U.S. alliance may have increased in the face of the North Korean threat, Trump remains a polarizing figure for many Japanese.

“A strong alliance with [the] United States seems to be sort of reassuring for obviously some people, but on the other hand this is not an ordinary president of the United States,” said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor with Sophia University in Tokyo.

It is unclear whether Koike’s attempt to differentiate herself from Abe on national security will resonate with the electorate.

Both also support altering Article 9 of the constitution that prohibits Japan from going to war to settle international disputes, and they both argue the Japanese military needs more latitude to counter increasing threats from North Korea and China. Opponents say it could entangle Japan in international conflicts, most likely in support of its U.S. military ally.

A new poll from the Yomiuri newspaper in Japan indicates 32 percent electorate support for Abe’s LDP and only 13 percent for Koike’s Party Of Hope, a drop of six points since September.

The formation of a new left-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan may also be splitting off support for Koike’s party.