印度对美国暂停援巴谨慎乐观

编辑:给力英语新闻 更新:2018年1月13日 作者:美国之音帕斯里恰(Anjana Pasricha)

印控克什米尔靠近巴基斯坦的地方(资料照)
印控克什米尔靠近巴基斯坦的地方(资料照)

美国暂停向巴基斯坦提供大约19亿美元的安全援助,以施压巴方对恐怖组织采取行动,印度对此谨慎乐观。不过,新德里分析人士表示,这项措施不大可能促使伊斯兰堡停止向活跃在克什米尔的恐怖组织提供安全庇护,其中包括真主穆斯林游击队。

印度对华盛顿新的严厉姿态反应低调,只由一位低级别的部长发表了一份简短的声明。此前,川普总统在新年推文上说,巴基斯坦拿着美国的援助,“除了谎言和欺骗,什么都没做”。

印度养老金部国务部长吉坦德拉·辛格说,就恐怖主义和巴基斯坦在恐怖主义暴行中的作用而言,足以证明印度的立场。

华盛顿最近几天警告说,如果伊斯兰堡没有能够对恐怖组织采取“果断行动”,就将加大施压力度。新德里方面对华盛顿的表态反应平静,印度一直抱怨自己是恐怖组织袭击的牺牲品,这些恐怖组织把巴基斯坦作为安全的藏身处。

新德里的维维卡南达国际基金会负责人古普塔说,现在判断川普总统可能会做什么,还为时太早。

与此同时,印度有许多人认为,华盛顿的主要担忧将是确保伊斯兰堡针对袭击阿富汗的恐怖组织采取行动,这些组织包括哈卡尼网络,阿富汗塔利班,因为华盛顿优先考虑的是稳定阿富汗的局势。还有人对华盛顿在对伊斯兰堡实施惩罚性措施的程度方面持怀疑态度,因为美国依赖巴基斯坦进入阿富汗这个战乱国家。

分析人士认为,新德里现在持观望态度,要看看美国的新政策在今后几个月的效果如何。

新德里“国防研究与分析研究所”的南亚问题专家穆尼的问题是:“他们(美国)真的会采取更进一步的措施吗?这是其一。其二,美国是否也会把印度的边境前沿地带考虑进去,并长期坚持下去。”

印度的另一些担心是,美国持续施压会让伊斯兰堡进一步倒向中国,扩大北京在南亚地区的足迹。这是新德里不希望看到的结果。新德里的维维卡南达国际基金会负责人古普塔说,我们已经看到中国可能要在巴基斯坦的吉沃尼建海军基地。人们已经看到中国、巴基斯坦和阿富汗组成了一个新的联合体。古普塔指的是三国去年12月在北京举行的首次外长对话。

Cautious Optimism in India About US Suspension of Aid to Pakistan

There is cautious optimism in India about the U.S. suspension of about $ 1.9 billion in security aid to Pakistan to pressure it to take action against terror groups. But analysts in New Delhi say the move is unlikely to prompt Islamabad to stop providing safe havens to groups that are active in Kashmir such as the Hizbul Mujahideen.

India’s reaction to Washington’s tough new posture has been muted, with only a brief statement from a junior minister following President Donald Trump’s New Year tweet that Pakistan had rewarded past U.S. aid with “nothing but lies & deceit.”

“It has abundantly, abundantly vindicated India’s stand as far as terrorism is concerned and as far as Pakistan’s role in perpetrating terrorism is concerned,” according to Jitendra Singh.

Washington’s warnings in recent days that it will ratchet up the pressure if Islamabad fails to take "decisive action" against terror groups has won quiet appreciation in New Delhi, which has long complained that it is a victim of attacks by terror groups that find sanctuaries inside Pakistan.

“It is too early to judge what he [President Trump] might do, but the perspective is fresh and new,” said Arvind Gupta, director at the research organization Vivekananda International Foundation in New Delhi.

At the same time, many in India feel that Washington’s main concern will be to ensure that Islamabad takes action against groups that target Afghanistan, such as the Haqqani network and the Afghan Taliban because its primary focus is on stabilizing Afghanistan. There is also some skepticism about how far Washington will go in imposing punitive measures on Islamabad due to its reliance on Pakistan for access to the war torn country.

‘Wait and watch’

Analysts say New Delhi is in a “wait and watch” mode to see how the new policy will unfold in coming months.

“Would they [the United States] really proceed further, number one? Number two, whether it will take the Indian front also into consideration and stick to it,” questions Sukh Deo Muni, a South Asia expert at New Delhi’s Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses.

There has been increasing sensitivity in Washington to India’s concerns on terrorism following a closer strategic embrace between the two countries – last August the U.S. administration named the Hizbul Mujahideen outfit as a global terrorist group and added its chief, Syed Salahuddin, to its list of global terrorists. Hizbul is one of the frontline groups active in Kashmir, the territory divided between the two countries.

And in an indication that India’s concerns are being taken seriously as the United States firms up its new policy on Pakistan, the U.S. ambassador to India, Kenneth Juster, said on Thursday that Washington has made it clear it will not tolerate “cross border terrorism or terrorist safe havens anywhere.”

However, when asked why the terror groups active against India were not named during the announcement of suspension of aid to Pakistan, Juster simply said, "Pakistan is important too for the situation in Afghanistan" and stability will not be possible without its contribution.

There are also some worries in India that continuing U.S. pressure will push Islamabad further towards China and expand Beijing’s footprint in the South Asian region – an outcome New Delhi does not want to see. “We are already seeing that the Chinese are probably going to set up a naval base in Jiwani (Pakistan). You have already seen that China, Pakistan and Afghanistan have formed a new grouping,” said Gupta, referring to the first dialogue of the foreign ministers from the three countries hosted by Beijing in December.

Still, amid increasing frustration in India over efforts to make headway with Islamabad on combating terrorism, the new U.S. policy represents a ray of hope. Formal talks between the two rivals have been virtually frozen for two years but the national security advisers of the two countries met in Bangkok last month to hold a dialogue, which New Delhi said focused on terrorism.

But officials and analysts admit that there is little progress. "We’ve had a hard line policy for some time and it has not really yielded results, because we are still having attacks across the border,” points out Manoj Joshi at New Delhi’s Observer Research Foundation. “So if the U.S. gets into the picture, the U.S. has much more clout than us and is able to do something about it, it is obviously something New Delhi would be happy with. As far as India is concerned, it’s a plus for us.”