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特朗普能带美国打赢贸易战吗?
Trump Starts a Trade War, but the Path to Success Remains Unclear

[2018年7月9日] 来源:纽约时报 作者:ANA SWANSON, NEIL IRWIN   字号 [] [] []  

WASHINGTON — The United States and China hit each other with punishing tariffs on Friday as the two nations tipped into a long-feared trade war that is only expected to escalate.

华盛顿——美国和中国上周五开始向对方征收惩罚性关税,两国步入了人们担心已久、预计只会不断升级的贸易战。

President Trump has said that trade wars are “easy to win.” Now, as he opens a global skirmish with allies and adversaries alike, the question is whether he has a plan to achieve the results he wants or whether he is heading into a costly and futile clash without resolution.

特朗普总统曾说,贸易战“很容易打赢”。现在,随着他在全球与盟友和对手同样开战,人们要问,他是否有取得自己想得到的结果的计划,会不会只是在没有解决方案的情况下走向了一场代价高昂、徒劳无益的冲突。

特朗普总统说贸易战“很容易赢”。
特朗普总统说贸易战“很容易赢”。

The president appears to be betting that threatening trading partners like China, the European Union, Mexico and Canada with tariffs will eventually force them to bend to the United States.

总统赌的似乎是用征收关税来威胁中国、欧盟、墨西哥和加拿大等贸易伙伴,将迫使它们最终听从美国。

His strategy is being buoyed by a strong economy that is giving Mr. Trump more latitude to impose tariffs that might otherwise pose too much risk. Job growth was strong in June, according to a new government report, as employers added 213,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate rose as more people entered the labor market and began looking for work. Manufacturing job growth was particularly robust.

美国强劲的经济有助于特朗普的战略,目前的经济让征收关税的做法可能不会带来太大的风险,从而给了特朗普更大的征收关税的自由。一份新的政府报告显示,美国6月份的就业增长强劲,雇主净增了21.3万个新工作岗位,随着更多的人进入劳动力市场寻找工作,失业率也有所上升。制造业的就业增长尤其强劲。

Those numbers are backward-looking, but there is little reason to think that the initial batch of tariffs will knock the entire economy off course. The $34 billion worth of Chinese goods subject to tariffs, and an equivalent retaliation by China, is tiny compared to the $20 trillion United States economy. Global stock markets largely shrugged off the trade war on Friday.

这些数字是后瞻性的,但几乎没有理由认为,首批关税将使整个经济偏离增长的轨道。对价值340亿美元的中国商品征收关税,并遭到中国对同等规模的美国商品进行报复,与美国20万亿美元的经济规模相比微不足道。全球股市上周五基本上没有理会这场贸易战。

But the tariffs are still inflicting pain on some industries in particular, including farmers and small manufacturers who have long supported Mr. Trump. And with little sign of a negotiated resolution between the United States and China — or any other trading partner — the conflict threatens to escalate, eventually affecting hundreds of billions of dollars of additional products.

但这些关税仍将给某些行业带来痛苦,尤其是长期支持特朗普的农场主和小型制造商。几乎没有任何迹象表明美国与中国——或与任何其他贸易伙伴——在通过谈判解决问题,这场冲突升级的危险很大,最终可能影响到数千亿美元的更多商品。

“Trump’s soundest argument in his election campaign was that he would not waste American lives and treasure in pointless wars of choice,” Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wrote in March in an op-ed article. “His launching a trade war would prove, however, to be his economic Afghanistan — costly, open-ended, and fruitless.”

“特朗普在竞选时最有力的论点是,他不会在毫无意义的、可打可不打的战争中浪费美国人的生命和财富,”彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)所长亚当·波森(Adam Posen)曾在今年3月的一篇专栏文章中这样写道。“然而,他正在发动的这场贸易战将被证明是他的阿富汗——代价高昂、无限期,而且毫无成果。”

On Friday, the Trump administration took its most aggressive step yet as it imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, including medical devices and airplane parts, and threatened billions of dollars more in the coming months. The Chinese immediately responded with tariffs on an equal volume of American soybeans, pork, automobiles and other products.

上周五,特朗普政府采取了迄今声势最为浩大的措施,对包括医疗设备和飞机零部件在内的、价值340亿美元的中国商品加征关税,并威胁在未来几个月还会对数百亿美元的更多商品征收关税。中国马上做出反应,对同等规模的美国大豆、猪肉、汽车和其他产品加征关税。

周五,中国投资者关注股价。
周五,中国投资者关注股价。

Mexico, Canada and the European Union have similarly retaliated against Mr. Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs and have threatened to push back if the president moves ahead with his threat to place a 20 percent tariff on imported cars and car parts.

墨西哥、加拿大和欧盟也对特朗普的钢铝关税采取类似的报复行动,并威胁说,如果特朗普把对进口汽车和汽车零部件加征20%关税的威胁付诸行动的话,将予以反击。

The president and his advisers insist that history is on their side and that Mr. Trump’s approach will yield better results than years of diplomatic niceties, including bilateral talks with the Chinese, that have produced bad deals for the United States.

总统和他的顾问们坚持认为,历史将证明他们做对了,他们认为,特朗普的做法将比多年来有礼有节的外交往来效果更好,比如与中国的双边会谈只为美国带来了糟糕的协议。

“We have the worst trade deals in the world. We lose money with everybody,” Mr. Trump said last week. “Every country is calling every day, saying, let’s make a deal, let’s make a deal. It’s going to all work out.”

“我们有世界上最糟糕的贸易协议。我们在所有的贸易中赔钱,”特朗普上周说。“每个国家每天都在给我们打电话说,让我们达成协议吧,让我们达成协议吧。一切都会得到解决的。”

His approach has garnered support from certain corners of American industry, particularly sectors that have seen significant job losses connected to China’s rise.

他的做法得到了美国工业界某些部门的支持,尤其是那些受中国崛起影响失去了大量就业岗位的领域。

“These aren’t the first shots of a new ‘trade war,’” Scott Paul, the president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, which represents steelworkers and manufacturers, said Thursday in a Twitter post. “China’s been conducting a highly effective war on American workers,” he said, adding that the “difference now is that we are systematically pushing back.”

“这不是一场新‘贸易战’的第一枪,”斯科特·保罗(Scott Paul)周四在Twitter上写道,他是代表钢铁工人和钢铁制造商的美国制造业联盟(Alliance for American Manufacturing)的会长。“中国一直在与美国工人进行一场非常有效的战争,”他说,还说,“现在不同的是,我们正在进行系统性的反击。”

But many of Mr. Trump’s supporters say they are unsure, exactly, how the trade war will work out, given the escalating threats emanating from the White House and the lack of a clear strategy toward resolving the president’s differences with the United States’ trading partners.

但特朗普的许多支持者说,考虑到白宫发出的不断升级的威胁,以及政府缺乏解决总统与美国贸易伙伴间种种分歧的明确战略,他们不能确定贸易战将如何取得成效。

Mr. Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs had barely gone into effect before he upped the ante and threatened auto tariffs on those same allies, pushing trade relations with Europe and Canada to their rockiest point in decades. With China, the president’s advisers have vacillated between asking Beijing to purchase more American products to lower the United States’ trade deficit and pushing for more substantive economic reforms. And talks to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico remain stalled over deep differences with the United States.

特朗普的钢铝关税刚生效不久,他就加大了赌注,威胁要对这些盟友征收汽车关税,把美国与欧洲和加拿大的贸易关系推向数十年来最困难的关头。特朗普的顾问们在中国贸易问题上摇摆不定,时而要求北京购买更多的美国产品来降低美国的贸易赤字,时而要求中国进行更实质性的经济改革。而与加拿大和墨西哥进行的修订北美自由贸易协定的谈判,也因两国与美国的严重分歧而陷入停滞状态。

If the conflict with China is not resolved soon, Mr. Trump has threatened to place tariffs on nearly everything China exports to the United States, in addition to tightening Chinese investments in the United States and limiting visas for Chinese citizens. While many supporters describe the president’s bold statements as a negotiating tactic, talks between the Chinese and the United States have faltered for now, with no additional discussions in sight.

如果与中国的冲突没有很快得到解决的话,特朗普已威胁要对中国向美国出口的几乎所有产品加征关税,还要收紧中国在美国的投资,并限制中国公民的赴美签证。尽管许多支持者把特朗普的大胆言论描述为一种谈判策略,但中美之间的谈判目前已经停顿,没有任何进一步商谈的计划。

“There is no apparent plan,” said Daniel Price, a managing director of Rock Creek Global Advisors, an advisory firm, and a former trade official in the George W. Bush administration. “The administration has given no indication what the off-ramp is or what their objectives are.”

“没有明显的计划,”丹尼尔·普赖斯(Daniel Price)说,他是洛克-克里克全球咨询公司(Rock Creek Global Advisors)的总经理,曾在乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)政府担任贸易官员。“政府对退路在哪里、他们的目标是什么没有给出任何表示。”

中国工厂内,工人正在移动铝材。
中国工厂内,工人正在移动铝材。

“Trump is treating trade policy as though it were a real estate deal, where the goal is to beat your opponent, step on his throat and humiliate him,” said Daniel Ikenson, the director of trade policy studies at the Cato Institute.

“特朗普正在把贸易政策当作一桩房地产交易来对待,房地产交易的目标是击败对手,不让他有喘息之地,让他无颜见人,”卡托研究所(Cato Institute)贸易政策研究主任丹尼尔·伊肯森(Daniel Ikenson)说。

Even if it works and nations like China blink, Mr. Ikenson said, “the cost to that will be trust in the U.S., and it will encourage other governments to behave this way when their backs are against the wall.”

伊肯森说,即便这种做法有效,能让像中国这样的国家做出让步,“这样做的代价将是对美国的信任,这将鼓励其他国家的政府在没有退路的时候采取同样的做法”。 Many farmers and manufacturers remain staunch supporters of Mr. Trump. But their faith is starting to waver as tariffs take effect and they feel the impact of reduced market access and higher costs.

许多农场主和制造商仍是特朗普的坚定支持者。但是,随着关税的生效,随着他们感受到市场准入减少和成本上升给他们带来的影响,他们的信心在开始动摇。

“I would just like the administration to be clear, at least with us, on the goal,” said Jay Hollowell, the mayor of Helena-West Helena, Ark., an area that produces soybeans, which are now being heavily taxed by China. “Is it to lower trade deficits with other countries like China, or is it to protect American industries?”

“我只是希望政府能明确表示,至少对我们表示,目的是什么,”阿肯色州海伦娜-西海伦娜市市长杰伊·霍洛韦尔(Jay Hollowell)说。该地区生产的大豆现在正被中国征收重税。“是为了减少与中国等其他国家的贸易逆差呢,还是为了保护美国的产业?”

“People’s livelihoods are on the line here,” Mr. Hollowell added.

“这关系到人们的生计问题,”霍洛韦尔补充说。

For now, the current trade measures affect a small portion of the economy and come at a time of economic strength, giving Mr. Trump more latitude to take the type of aggressive measures that, in weaker economic times, would provide a drag on the economy much more quickly.

就当前而言,现行的贸易措施只影响到经济的一小部分,而且是在经济表现很好的时候,这让特朗普采取激进措施有更多的余地,在经济疲软的时候采取这类措施会很快给经济带来拖累。

Businesses have been warning for months that tariffs will cause them to scale back on hiring and investment, and pass higher prices on to consumers. But those effects are not evident in the data, so far.

企业几个月来一直在警告说,关税将让它们缩减雇佣和投资规模,将更高的价格转嫁给消费者。但就目前而言,这些影响在数据中并不明显。

Oxford Economics, for example, calculated that the tariffs with China would shave only 0.1 percent off both American and Chinese gross domestic product in the next two years, though that would rise to 0.3 percent if the Trump administration follows through on threats to expand the tariffs to $200 billion worth of goods.

比如,据牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)计算,对中国加征的这些关税只会在未来两年里对美国和中国的国内生产总值(GDP)产生0.1%的影响,如果特朗普政府把关税扩大到价值2000亿美元的商品,这种影响则会上升到GDP的0.3%。

But tariffs could still cause plenty of trouble in specific sectors and industries, even if the levies do not provide a significant drag on overall economic growth.

但即便不给整体经济增长造成严重拖累,关税仍可能给特定的部门和行业带来不少的麻烦。

For example, soybean futures prices have fallen 15 percent since May 25 in anticipation of the Chinese retaliatory tariffs. With a stiff tax on soybean imports, American farmers will face lower demand from overseas and a hit to their incomes. Those farmers, in turn, would spend less on equipment and materials, which could eventually trickle through to the broader economy.

例如,由于预期中国将采取报复性关税,大豆期货价格自5月25日以来已经下跌了15%。随着对大豆进口征税高额关税,美国农民将面临海外需求下降和收入锐减。这些农民将相应减少在设备和材料上的花费,这最终可能会渗透到更广泛的经济中去。

John Heisdorffer, a soybean grower from Keota, Iowa, and the president of the American Soybean Association, said he and others in the industry had spent years trying to develop markets in China that were now being closed with the stroke of a pen. “My son, who farms with me, is going to spend the rest of his lifetime trying to get that back, and that scares the hell out of me,” Mr. Heisdorffer said.

来自艾奥瓦州基奥塔的大豆种植者约翰·海斯多费尔(John Heisdorffer)是美国大豆协会(American Soybean Association)的主席,他表示,他和行业内的其他人多年来试图在中国开发市场,如今随着大笔一挥,这些市场都将关闭。海斯多费尔说:“我的儿子和我一起务农,他的余生都要拼命重新赢得那些市场,这个想法吓坏了我。”

The United States trade representative said Friday that it would allow American companies to apply for exclusions to the tariffs if the product they need to import is not available outside China, or if the tariffs on it would cause “severe economic harm.”

美国贸易代表于周五表示,它将允许美国公司申请免除关税,如果它们所需的进口产品在中国之外无法获得,或者对这种产品征收的关税会对它们造成“严重的经济损失”。

Some of the products involved in earlier phases of the Trump administration’s trade battles offer evidence of how American consumers may eventually be affected.

特朗普政府贸易战早期阶段涉及的一些产品证明了美国消费者最终可能受到怎样的影响。

In January, the president announced new tariffs on imported washing machines. Since then, the price of laundry equipment is up 10 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

1月,总统宣布对进口洗衣机征收新关税。根据美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的数据,从那时起,洗衣设备的价格上涨了10%。 And the administration has either entered or threatened to enter trade wars on multiple fronts at the same time, compounding the risks. A tariff on automobile imports that is in the works, for example, could expand the dollar value of goods the United States places tariffs on by tenfold and set off a new wave of retaliation that endangers companies that export to Europe, Japan, South Korea and elsewhere.

政府已同时在多个战线进行或威胁进行贸易战,从而加剧了风险。例如,计划中对汽车进口征收的关税,可使美国征收关税的商品的美元价值增加十倍,并引发新的报复浪潮,危及出口到欧洲、日本、韩国和其他国家的企业。

Leaders of the Federal Reserve appear concerned that this overlay of risk in the economy could dampen investment spending, according to minutes of a June policy meeting released Thursday. Fed officials “noted that uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified and were concerned that such uncertainty and risks eventually could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending.”

根据周四公布的6月政策会议纪要,美联储的领导人似乎担心,叠加的经济风险可能抑制投资支出。美联储官员“注意到与贸易政策相关的不确定性和风险已经加剧,并担心这种不确定性和风险最终会对商业信心和投资支出产生负面影响”。

The economy appears strong enough to withstand the relatively moderate tariffs that have already been put in place. The question is what will happen if things continue to escalate to eventually encompass hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars worth of goods.

美国经济看起来足够强大,能够承受目前已实施的相对温和的关税。问题是,如果事态继续升级,最终会涉及价值数千亿甚至数万亿美元的商品,将会发生什么。

“If we get up to a trillion dollars in the cross hairs, then that means we’re talking about 25 percent of trade in goods,” Mr. Ikenson said. “People will begin to notice that.”

“如果我们把目标定在一万亿美元,那就意味着我们谈的是25%的货物贸易,”伊肯森说。“人们将开始注意到这一点。”

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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