关于特朗普与金正恩会面,你需要知道的7件事

7 Big Things to Understand About Trump’s Talks With North Korea

编辑:给力英语新闻 更新:2018年3月12日 作者:纽约时报(MAX FISHER)

周五,东京的一处电子屏幕上显示的特朗普总统和朝鲜领导人金正恩。
周五,东京的一处电子屏幕上显示的特朗普总统和朝鲜领导人金正恩。
An electronic screen showing President Trump and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, on Friday in Tokyo.

President Donald Trump has accepted North Korea’s invitation for direct talks with Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, to be held by May. It’s a big deal, but you’re probably wondering how big a deal, what it means and how to think about it.

唐纳德·特朗普总统接受朝鲜邀请,将于5月与其领导人金正恩进行直接会谈。这是一件大事,但你可能想知道它究竟有多大,它意味着什么,以及应当如何看待它。

It’s impossible to say for sure. But here are seven things I’ve learned in the past few years from covering North Korea, diplomacy and, more recently, the Trump administration’s unusual approach to foreign policy.

现在不可能给出明确的答案。但是,通过过去几年研究朝鲜和外交问题,乃至最近研究特朗普政府在外交政策方面的不寻常做法,我明确了七件事情。

朝鲜政府8月公布的一张照片显示的据称是“火星-12”中程导弹的试射场面。
朝鲜政府8月公布的一张照片显示的据称是“火星-12”中程导弹的试射场面。
A photo distributed by the North Korean government in August shows what it said was the test launch of a Hwasong-12 intermediate range missile.

1. Short term, it reduces the risk of war.

1. 短期内,它降低了战争的风险。

Even just preparing for talks changes North Korean and U.S. incentives in ways that make us all less likely to be obliterated in a fiery nuclear inferno. That’s good!

即使只是准备谈判,也会改变朝鲜和美国的动机,使得我们都不太可能在灼热的核地狱中死去。很好!

The biggest risk was probably always an accident or miscalculation that slid into unintended war, or maybe a unilateral U.S. strike that escalated out of control.

最大的风险可能是总会有意外或错判,从而导致意外战争,或者一场失控的美国单方面打击。

This more or less takes those scenarios off the table. Both sides now have reason to reduce rather than increase tensions, to read one another’s actions as peaceful rather than hostile and to preserve the diplomatic efforts in which both have invested political capital.

谈判或多或少可以减少这些情况的可能性。双方现在有理由缓和而不是增进紧张局势,它们会将彼此的行动理解为和平的,而不是敌对的,两国都已在外交努力中投入政治资本,它们会将这一努力继续保持下去。

Still, that only lasts until the talks themselves.

不过,这只会持续到谈判开始的时候。

周四,三名韩国官员在白宫外面。
周四,三名韩国官员在白宫外面。
Three South Korean officials outside the White House on Thursday. From left, the National Intelligence Service chief, Suh Hoon; the national security director, Chung Eui-yong; and the ambassador to the United States, Cho Yoon-je.

2. Mismatched signals may have set up the talks to fail.

2. 不匹配的信号可能给会谈失败埋下伏笔。

Usually, before high-level talks like these, both sides spend a long time telegraphing their expected outcomes.

通常,在这样的高级别会谈之前,双方都会花很长时间释放信号,透露他们预期的结果。

Such signals serve as public commitments, both to the other side of the negotiation and to citizens back home. It’s a way for both sides to test each other’s demands and offers, reducing the risk of surprise or embarrassment.

这些信号作为公开承诺,既是发给谈判的另一方,也是发送给本国公民的。这是双方测试彼此需求和提议的一种方式,可以减少谈判时意外或尴尬的风险。

That is not really how things have proceeded with the United States and North Korea. Trump has already committed to granting North Korea one of its most desired concessions: a high-level meeting between the heads of state.

美国和朝鲜的情况事实上并非如此。特朗普已经承诺给予朝鲜它最希望的让步之一:国家元首之间的高层会晤。

In exchange, North Korea has not publicly committed to anything. It has, quite cannily, channeled its public communications through South Korea, making it easier to renege.

朝鲜反过来则尚未公开承诺任何事情。它已经非常精明地通过韩国做了公关,这也令它食言起来更容易。

Further, Trump has declared “denuclearization” as his minimal acceptable outcome for talks, making it harder for him to accept a more modest (but more achievable!) outcome and costlier for him to walk away.

此外,特朗普已宣布“无核化”是他谈判的底线,这使他难以接受一个更适度(但更有可能做到!)的谈判结果,并且令他退出谈判的代价变得更高。

在位于非军事区的停战村板门店,会议室横跨韩朝两国边界。
在位于非军事区的停战村板门店,会议室横跨韩朝两国边界。
Meeting rooms that straddle the border between the two Koreas in the truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone.

3. The sides do not agree on the point of talking.

3. 双方就谈判要点没有达成共识。

It’s worth belaboring the costs of skipping the usual process of mutual public signaling.

跳过通常的互相发送公开信号过程会有什么样的代价,这一点值得再多说几句。

South Korean officials have said Kim is willing to enter talks for “denuclearization” — there’s that word again — which is perhaps why Trump seems to believe this will happen.

韩国官员表示,金正恩愿意进入“无核化”谈判——这个词再次出现了——这也许导致了特朗普似乎相信这是能做到的。

But Duyeon Kim, a Seoul-based analyst, writes in a column in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that “denuclearization” means vastly different things to the United States and North Korea.

但首尔分析师金杜妍(Duyeon Kim,音)在《原子科学家公报》(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists)的专栏中写道,“无核化”对于美国和朝鲜意味着截然不同的事情。

Americans understand the word as describing North Korea’s full nuclear disarmament, which is very difficult to imagine happening.

美国人认为这个词意味着朝鲜的全面核裁军,那是很难想象的。

But North Koreans, she writes, tend to mean it as a kind of mutual and incremental disarmament in which the United States also gives up weapons.

但她写道,朝鲜人倾向于认为,无核化意味着相互和渐进的裁军,在这个过程中,美国也要放弃自己的武器。

Normally, the United States and North Korea would have issued months, even years, of public statements on their goals for direct talks, to clear all this up.

通常情况下,美国和朝鲜会连续数月甚至数年发表公开声明,阐述直接对话的目标,以便解释清楚这些问题。

But, again, the Americans have made splashy public commitments while letting the North Koreans get by without doing the same.

但美国又做出了引人注目的公开承诺,同时允许朝鲜不这么做就应付过去。

韩国官员宣布特朗普总统和朝鲜领导人金正恩同意会面。
韩国官员宣布特朗普总统和朝鲜领导人金正恩同意会面。
South Korean officials announcing that President Trump and Kim Jong-un of North Korea had agreed to a meeting.

4. The Trump administration has gotten the process backward.

4. 特朗普政府把过程弄反了。

It’s practically an axiom of international diplomacy that you only bring heads of state together at the very end of talks, after lower-level officials have done the dirty work.

只有到谈判的最后环节,在低级别官员把脏活累活都干完之后,国家元首才会举行会面。这几乎是国际外交的公理。

Negotiators need to be free to back down from demands. Or to contradict themselves. Or to play good cop, bad cop. Or to walk away. Lower-level officials can lose face or sacrifice credibility for the sake of talks. Heads of state are much too constrained.

谈判代表必须可以自由地放弃要求。或者出尔反尔。或扮演好警察,坏警察。或者起身离开。低级别官员可以为了谈判而丢面子或牺牲信誉。国家元首面临的限制则要多得多。

Robert E. Kelly, a professor at South Korea’s Pusan National University, wrote on Twitter that, in a more typical process, “there would be a series of concessions and counterconcessions building trust and credibility over time (likely years) eventually rising to a serious discussion of denuclearization.”

韩国釜山国立大学(Pusan National University)的教授罗伯特·E·克利(Robert E. Kelly)在推特上写道,在更典型的程序中,“会有一系列的让步和拒绝让步,随着时间的推移(可能是数年),逐步建立信任和信誉,最终上升到一场严肃的无核化讨论。”

Instead, the Trump administration is jumping straight to the last step.

但特朗普政府直接跳到了最后一步。

周五,国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森在肯尼亚内罗毕。他领导的国务院失去了很多经验丰富的外交官。
周五,国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森在肯尼亚内罗毕。他领导的国务院失去了很多经验丰富的外交官。
Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson in Nairobi, Kenya on Friday, runs a State Department that has lost many seasoned diplomats.

5. The State Department is in a shambles.

5. 美国国务院一片混乱。

Wouldn’t this be a good moment to have a U.S. ambassador to South Korea? Or an undersecretary of state for arms control and international security?

这难道不是任命美国驻韩国大使,或者负责军备控制及国际安全的副国务卿的好时机吗?

Both posts are empty. The desk for assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs is occupied by a respected but interim official who has clashed with the White House. Her boss, the undersecretary for political affairs, is retiring.

这两个职位目前都空着。现在负责东亚和太平洋事务的助理国务卿是一位受人尊敬,但与白宫有分歧的临时官员。她的上司,即负责政治事务的副国务卿即将退休。

特朗普总统在周四的内阁会议上。
特朗普总统在周四的内阁会议上。
President Trump during a cabinet meeting on Thursday.

6. Everything could turn on the president’s personality.

6. 一切都可能取决于总统的个性。

Trump’s headstrong personalization of North Korea policy may be the most significant aspect of all this.

特朗普固执任性地把朝鲜政策个人化可能是这一切中最重要的一点。

It means that talks and their outcome will be determined, to an unprecedented degree, by Trump’s personal biases and impulses. By his mood at the time of talks. By his particular style of negotiation.

这意味着谈判及其结果将在前所未有的程度上取决于特朗普个人的倾向和冲动。取决于他在谈判时的心情。取决于他独特的谈判风格。

When legislative efforts have stalled, Trump has at times lashed out. In domestic politics, that can mean publicly denigrating his target or pressuring them to resign. In a heavily militarized standoff between nuclear powers, the stakes would be higher.

在立法行动停滞不前时,特朗普有时会发起猛烈攻击。在国内政治中,这可能意味着公开诋毁他的攻击对象或迫使他们辞职。在高度军事化的核大国僵持中,风险会更高。

“If Trump gets all valedictory over simple willingness to talk, he may also tack hard in the other direction when hopes are dashed,” Mira Rapp-Hooper, a senior fellow at the Center for New American Security, wrote on Twitter.

“如果特朗普把简单的对话愿意当做毕业典礼致辞一样严肃对待,那么当希望破灭的时候,他可能会全力冲往另一个方向,”新美国安全中心(Center for a New American Security)的高级研究员米拉·拉普-胡珀(Mira Rapp-Hooper)在Twitter上写道。

去年在平壤金日成广场上举行的阅兵仪式上的移动导弹发射车。
去年在平壤金日成广场上举行的阅兵仪式上的移动导弹发射车。
A mobile missile launcher during a military parade last year at Kim Il-Sung Square in Pyongyang.

7. North Korea has already achieved a symbolic victory.

7. 朝鲜已经取得了象征性的胜利。

For North Korea, high-level talks are a big win in their own right. Kim seeks to transform his country from a rogue pariah into an established nuclear power, a peer to the United States, a player on the international stage.

对朝鲜来说,高层会谈本身就是一场巨大的胜利。金正恩试图把自己领导的国家从一个被遗弃的流氓国家,变成一个得到认可的核国家,一个与美国地位相当的国家,一个国际舞台上的参与者。

That wins Kim international acknowledgment and heightened status, as well as significant domestic credibility.

这会给金正恩赢得国际认可和地位提升,以及重要的国内声誉。

“Kim is not inviting Trump so that he can surrender North Korea’s weapons,” Jeffrey Lewis, a Korea expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, wrote on Twitter. “Kim is inviting Trump to demonstrate that his investment in nuclear and missile capabilities has forced the United States to treat him as an equal.”

“金正恩邀请特朗普不是为了让自己交出朝鲜的武器,”米德尔伯里国际研究学院(Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey)的朝鲜问题专家杰弗里·刘易斯(Jeffrey Lewis)在Twitter上写道。“金正恩邀请特朗普是为了证明,他对核武器和导弹能力的投资已经迫使美国给予了他平等对待。”

That’s been a North Korean priority since the 1990s.

从1990年代开始,这一直是朝鲜的首要任务。

“解析(The Interpreter)”是一个探索国际重大事件背后的想法与背景的专栏,由Max Fisher和Amanda Taub撰写。欢迎在Twitter上关注 @Max_Fisher和 @amandataub。

翻译:纽约时报中文网